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Spot prices for gold this week touchedR$2,000 per ounce for the first time since the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices slipped back after testing the level several times throughout the week, but trading in options contracts linked to the metal suggest many investors are expecting a more sustained rally in the weeks ahead.
Financial investors generally make bets on gold prices through futures contracts, exchange traded funds, or options contracts tied to them. Aakash Doshi, head of commodities for North America at Citigroup, said there had been a surge in investor activity across all three channels in recent weeks.
“The big catalyst has been the stress in the regional banking system in the US . . . [and] it has been pretty much one-directional buying,” he said.
March is set to be the first month of net inflows into gold ETFs for 10 months, while the volume of bullish options bets tied to the funds has approached record levels.
Call options give investors the right to buy assets at a set price at a later date. The five-day rolling volume of call options on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF has surged more than fivefold since the start of the month. The ratio of calls to puts — options that are used to make bearish bets or protect against downside risk — has also swung to extreme levels, suggesting a consensus among traders that prices are on the way up.
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